HERITGFOOD
Heritage Foods Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
HERITGFOOD
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹330 today
BEAR
₹295
-11%
10.4% a year · 16.5x exit
BASE
₹370
+12%
18.1% a year · 19.4x exit
BULL
₹582
+76%
24.5% a year · 28.9x exit
Where the market has priced it
9x20x today52x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +18.0%, filed +17.7% across 1 quarter(s)
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹16.18 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 18.1% a year, said on the call of 21-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 16.5x / 19.37x / 28.88x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 9 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 24.91x across 4 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 18%
The long-term trajectory, what one should expect is that -- and this is something that we have mentioned in the past as well, is that we are aiming to grow in the mid- to high teens, so 16 to 17 percentage kind of growth is what we are aimi
Call 21-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 18.0%
filed 17.7%
1 of 4 quarters