HEIDELBERG
HeidelbergCement India Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
HEIDELBERG
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹153 today
BEAR
₹88
-42%
4% a year · 16.5x exit
BASE
₹120
-22%
7% a year · 21.8x exit
BULL
₹189
+24%
9.5% a year · 33.6x exit
Where the market has priced it
12x30x today37x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company's own median multiple sits 46% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 TTM EPS ₹5.14 (universe (TradingView, diluted TTM)) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 7% a year, said on the call of 03-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 16.5x / 21.79x / 33.56x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 5 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 40.14x across 13 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
implied earnings growth 7%
Management anticipates Central India industry demand growth of 7% to 7.5% in FY27 and FY28, with Heidelberg's growth aligning with this rate. No explicit company-specific volume target provided, but confidence in passing cost increases to customers and leveraging new blending unit capacity.
Call 03-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF