HDFCAMC
HDFC Asset Management Company Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
HDFCAMC
FY26 → FY30 · 4 years of guidance · ~3.7 years from today₹2,616 today
BEAR
₹2,937
+12%+3% a yr
6.9% a year · 33.6x exit
BASE
₹3,680
+41%+10% a yr
12% a year · 35x exit
BULL
₹4,891
+87%+19% a yr
16.3% a year · 40x exit
Where the market has priced it
26x39x today48x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +12.0%, filed +13.4% across 1 quarter(s)
- this company's own median multiple sits 83% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹66.75 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 12% a year, said on the call of 17-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 33.65x / 35x / 40x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 8 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 19.19x across 7 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)4 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 12%
Another thing on ESOP -- on opex was that you had earlier guided that opex growth of 12% to 13% ex of this noncash charge.
Call 17-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 12.0%
filed 13.4%
1 of 4 quarters