Hindustan Aeronautics Limited

Aerospace & Defense/ NSE

Compiled

Auto-generated from filings and public channels — no analyst dossier.

If management delivers what it guided

arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target

HAL

FY26 → FY29 · 3 years of guidance · ~2.7 years from today₹4,646 today

BEAR

₹1,650

-64%-32% a yr

5.8% a year · 10.2x exit

BASE

₹3,890

-16%-6% a yr

10% a year · 21.4x exit

BULL

₹6,169

+33%+11% a yr

13.6% a year · 30.9x exit

Where the market has priced it

6x34x today — outside the range34x

the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
the last 3 years priced this company 39% above its ten-year median (30x vs 21x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
at 34x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (31x)
this company's own median multiple sits 46% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own

How these numbers are produced

Earnings base	FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹136.3 (screener)
Guided growth	10% a year, said on the call of 22-May-2026 · transcript
Read across as	operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence
Delivery calibration	0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings
Exit multiple	10.23x / 21.44x / 30.88x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 9 filed years
Filed-industry peers	median 39.47x across 3 peers — the cross-check, not the input
Arithmetic	base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)³ × exit multiple

Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.

How to read this

It answers one question. If this management delivers the growth it told its own investors it would, and the market pays what it has historically paid for this company's earnings, where does the arithmetic land? Nothing here is a forecast of the share price.
Three cases, two moving parts. Bear, base and bull vary the delivery — what fraction of guidance managements actually file — and the exit multiple together, because a company that misses its guidance is usually de-rated for missing it. Each case shows the growth rate and the multiple that produced it.
Read the width, not just the middle. A wide gap between bear and bull means the inputs are uncertain, not that the upside is bigger. A narrow range is a more confident statement than a high one.
“Where the market has priced it” puts today's P/E on the company's own historical range. Sitting far below that range is why a scenario can look enormous: the number is then mostly about re-rating, not about delivery, and the board marks those separately.
The bullets underneath are the caveats — a borrowed peer multiple, a thin filed history, an earnings base that carried a one-off. They are the reasons to trust the number less, listed rather than buried.

Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do. The field guide covers the method.

What management said

from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted

generic growth 10%

Barenya Senapati: As far as revenue growth is concerned, we are hopeful that we'll be maintaining a double-digit growth in the current financial year '26-'27.

Call 22-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF

Coverage

SectorAerospace & Defense

Dossiersnone

Guidanceyes

Scenarioyes

Street chatter

unverified · logged from public channels

Hindustan Aeronautics, with 25% UPSIDE- Tejas deliveries shifted to 2QFY27

18 May 11:02

*Goldman Sachs On Hindustan Aeronautics*

Recommendation: Neutral; Target: ₹5,225, Earlier Target: ₹5,255

Robust order book, but yet to see pick up in execution

EBITDA margin was lower owing to higher than expected other expenses and capitalised expenses

Provisions dropped by 88% year-on-year, implying continued subdued manufacturing act

Order win15 May 03:27

HINDUSTAN AERONAUTICS (HAL): Govt assigns additional charge of Director (Operations) to CMD for interim period.

Commentary11 May 13:29

🛡️ Received a ₹2,205.23 crore order from Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL), inclusive of taxes and GST.

Order win30 Jul 12:47