GULPOLY
Gulshan Polyols Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
GULPOLY
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹197 today
BEAR
₹187
-5%-3% a yr
15.6% a year · 8.1x exit
BASE
₹516
+162%+78% a yr
27% a year · 18.6x exit
BULL
₹1,540
+681%+245% a yr
36.7% a year · 48x exit
Where the market has priced it
5x12x today62x
- FY26 earnings of Rs 17.18 sit 4x the prior year (Rs 3.97) and 4x the median of the years before it — a discontinuity, not a run-rate this projection can assume continues
- the last 3 years priced this company 148% above its ten-year median (46x vs 19x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
- this company's own median multiple sits 60% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹17.18 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 27% a year, said on the call of 27-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: absolute ₹ revenue target — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 8.13x / 18.63x / 48x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 46.71x across 11 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
ebitda margin 12%
And if I talk about the EBITDA margins, definitely looking at about 10% to 12% EBITDA margins in this financial year.
Call 27-May-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF