GREENPLY
Greenply Industries Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
GREENPLY
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹285 today
BEAR
₹181
-37%
5.6% a year · 23.9x exit
BASE
₹213
-25%
9.6% a year · 27.1x exit
BULL
₹320
+12%
13.1% a year · 39.5x exit
Where the market has priced it
19x40x today43x
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +10.0%, filed +20.6% across 1 quarter(s)
- the last 3 years priced this company 44% above its ten-year median (39x vs 27x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- at 40x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (39x)
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹7.17 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 9.6% a year, said on the call of 27-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: volume growth, realisation+margin held flat — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 23.86x / 27.14x / 39.48x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 35x across 8 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
volume growth 10%generic growth 10%margin 10%
In Q1 FY27, we delivered double-digit volume growth in both segments, in line with our guidance.
Call 27-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 10.0%
filed 20.6%
1 of 4 quarters