GRASIM
Grasim Industries Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
GRASIM
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹3,101 today
BEAR
₹1,201
-61%
6.4% a year · 15.5x exit
BASE
₹2,169
-30%
11% a year · 26.8x exit
BULL
₹3,331
+7%
14.9% a year · 39.7x exit
Where the market has priced it
7x42x today48x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- the last 3 years priced this company 33% above its ten-year median (36x vs 27x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- at 42x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (40x)
- this company's own median multiple sits 33% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹73 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 11% a year, said on the call of 13-Feb-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 15.48x / 26.78x / 39.71x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 40.14x across 13 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 10%
And by FY27, we are hopeful that it will come back to 8% to 10% growth levels.
Call 13-Feb-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF