FSL
Firstsource Solutions Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
FSL
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹302 today
BEAR
₹116
-62%
5.8% a year · 11.5x exit
BASE
₹227
-25%
10% a year · 21.6x exit
BULL
₹324
+7%
13.6% a year · 29.9x exit
Where the market has priced it
6x32x today40x
- the last 3 years priced this company 27% above its ten-year median (27x vs 22x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- at 32x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (30x)
- this company's own median multiple sits 33% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹9.54 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 10% a year, said on the call of 12-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: revenue growth, margin held flat — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 11.51x / 21.61x / 29.93x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 32.4x across 19 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
margin 11.7%
Our operating profit was INR11.2 billion, up 27.4% over FY25, and translates to EBIT margin of 11.7%, within the 11.5% to 12% range we have guided previously.
Call 12-May-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF