EPIGRAL
Epigral Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
EPIGRAL
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,089 today
BEAR
₹924
-15%
6.9% a year · 11.2x exit
BASE
₹1,408
+29%
12% a year · 16.3x exit
BULL
₹2,142
+97%
16.3% a year · 23.9x exit
Where the market has priced it
11x14x today25x
- the FY26 base of Rs 77.19 is 23% above the Rs 62.99 trailing twelve months — that year carried something the last four quarters did not
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- the last 3 years priced this company 41% above its ten-year median (23x vs 16x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹77.19 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 12% a year, said on the call of 30-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: volume growth, realisation+margin held flat — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 11.19x / 16.29x / 23.86x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 5 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 18.8x across 15 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
implied earnings growth 12%
Management explicitly targets 10% to 12% volume growth in FY27, with EBITDA margins maintained in the 'normalized range of 23%'. Capacity expansions for Epichlorohydrin and CPVC are progressing on track, and FY27 is expected to outperform FY26 based on higher-value product growth.
Call 30-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF