ELLEN
Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
ELLEN
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹263 today
BEAR
₹117
-56%-39% a yr
11.6% a year · 12.7x exit
BASE
₹242
-8%-5% a yr
20% a year · 22.7x exit
BULL
₹518
+96%+50% a yr
27.2% a year · 43.2x exit
Where the market has priced it
7x36x today96x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 41 Chemicals: Specialty peers
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹7.41 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 20% a year, said on the call of 26-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 12.69x / 22.72x / 43.19x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 41 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 22.72x across 41 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 20%
Varun Agarwal: So, I think longer-term revenue growth which we've guided in the past as well is for a 20% CAGR kind of a revenue growth.
Call 26-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF