CRIZAC
Crizac Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
CRIZAC
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹195 today
BEAR
₹284
+46%+25% a yr
8.7% a year · 19.2x exit
BASE
₹380
+95%+49% a yr
15% a year · 22.9x exit
BULL
₹837
+329%+140% a yr
20.4% a year · 46.1x exit
Where the market has priced it
14x16x today55x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 6 Internet Software/Services peers
- at 16x its FY26 earnings the stock trades below the bottom of its own ten-year range (19x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹12.52 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 15% a year, said on the call of 27-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 19.22x / 22.95x / 46.13x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 6 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 22.95x across 6 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
roe 37.2%generic growth 15%margin 28%
Our capital efficiency continues to be our key strength with ROE of 37.2% and ROCE of 48.6% for FY26, reflecting the asset-light nature of our operating model.
Call 27-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF