CPPLUS
Aditya Infotech Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
CPPLUS
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹3,391 today
BEAR
₹1,765
-48%
28.9% a year · 43.8x exit
BASE
₹2,333
-31%
50% a year · 49.8x exit
BULL
₹2,746
-19%
68% a year · 52.3x exit
Where the market has priced it
38x108x today — outside the range56x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 5 Electronics/Appliances peers
- at 109x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (52x)
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹31.24 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 50% a year, said on the call of 03-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 43.84x / 49.79x / 52.33x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 5 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 49.79x across 5 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
ebitda margin 14%margin 14%generic growth 50%
Looking at the current market and the stability of the CCTV industry post-STQC mandate, we would like to set the tone for the upcoming financial year by upping our initial guidance for FY 2027, on the revenue side to INR6,000 crores to INR6
Call 03-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF