CONCORDBIO
Concord Biotech Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
CONCORDBIO
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,421 today
BEAR
₹545
-62%
10.3% a year · 19.6x exit
BASE
₹916
-36%
17.8% a year · 30.9x exit
BULL
₹1,746
+23%
24.2% a year · 55.8x exit
Where the market has priced it
15x56x today136x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 20 Miscellaneous Commercial Services peers
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +18.0%, filed +27.9% across 1 quarter(s)
- at 56x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (56x)
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹25.17 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 17.8% a year, said on the call of 05-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 19.64x / 30.88x / 55.82x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 20 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 30.88x across 20 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 18%
I think you have always alluded to your historical growth rates of high teens and indicated that you could possibly be in a position to maintain or even perform a number beyond that.
Call 05-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 18.0%
filed 27.9%
1 of 4 quarters