CCL
CCL Products (India) Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
CCL
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,155 today
BEAR
₹705
-39%
8.7% a year · 22.3x exit
BASE
₹892
-23%
15% a year · 26.7x exit
BULL
₹1,202
+4%
20.4% a year · 34.4x exit
Where the market has priced it
14x40x today — outside the range37x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- at 40x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (34x)
- this company's own median multiple sits 43% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹29.07 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 15% a year, said on the call of 30-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: volume growth, realisation+margin held flat — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 22.33x / 26.7x / 34.36x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 46.71x across 11 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
volume growth 15%ebitda margin 5%
We stand by the guidance of 15% volume growth.
Call 30-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF