CAPITALSFB
Capital Small Finance Bank Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
CAPITALSFB
FY26 → FY29 · 3 years of guidance · ~2.7 years from today₹292 today
BEAR
₹266
-9%-3% a yr
7.5% a year · 6.9x exit
BASE
₹447
+53%+17% a yr
12.9% a year · 10x exit
BULL
₹896
+207%+52% a yr
17.6% a year · 17.7x exit
Where the market has priced it
5x9x today26x
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 12 Regional Banks peers
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹31.13 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 12.9% a year, said on the call of 05-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | lender: ROE x retention (Gordon sustainable g) — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 6.88x / 10x / 17.71x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 12 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 10x across 12 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)3 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
roe 15%
To achieve ROTA expansion in the coming year and with a target to make it 1.35% to 1.4% in FY '27 and 1.6% plus by FY '29 with an ROE expansion of 15% plus by FY '29.
Call 05-May-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF