BHAGYANGR
Bhagyanagar India Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
BHAGYANGR
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹380 today
BEAR
₹166
-56%
18.5% a year · 8.9x exit
BASE
₹291
-24%
32% a year · 14.1x exit
BULL
₹552
+45%
43.5% a year · 24.6x exit
Where the market has priced it
7x24x today43x
- FY26 earnings of Rs 15.68 sit 4x the prior year (Rs 4.38) and 8x the median of the years before it — a discontinuity, not a run-rate this projection can assume continues
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +15.0%, filed +45.1% across 1 quarter(s)
- the last 3 years priced this company 32% below its ten-year median (10x vs 14x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- this company's own median multiple sits 50% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹15.68 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 32% a year, said on the call of 30-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: guided margin x own realised revenue CAGR — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 8.93x / 14.06x / 24.55x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 9 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 28.1x across 21 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 15%ebitda margin 5%margin 5%
So, | think we should be looking at between 12% to 15% growth in terms of volume for the whole year now.
Call 30-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 15.0%
filed 45.1%
1 of 4 quarters