BERGEPAINT
Berger Paints (I) Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
BERGEPAINT
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹520 today
BEAR
₹475
-9%
5.8% a year · 46.5x exit
BASE
₹597
+15%
10% a year · 56.2x exit
BULL
₹803
+54%
13.6% a year · 73.1x exit
Where the market has priced it
43x54x today103x
management named no year; shown one year out
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company's own median multiple sits 62% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹9.66 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 10% a year, said on the call of 10-Feb-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: volume growth, realisation+margin held flat — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 46.45x / 56.2x / 73.13x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 34.62x across 20 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
volume growth 10%margin 4%generic growth 10%
We should be able to definitely go into the volume, double-digit volume growth happening.
Call 10-Feb-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF