BEL
Bharat Electronics Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
BEL
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹388 today
BEAR
₹163
-58%
12.9% a year · 17.4x exit
BASE
₹271
-30%
22.3% a year · 26.7x exit
BULL
₹480
+24%
30.3% a year · 44.5x exit
Where the market has priced it
9x47x today51x
management named no year; shown one year out
- the last 3 years priced this company 50% above its ten-year median (40x vs 27x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- at 47x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (44x)
- this company's own median multiple sits 32% below its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹8.29 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 22.3% a year, said on the call of 28-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: guided margin x own realised revenue CAGR — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 17.37x / 26.69x / 44.47x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 39.47x across 3 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
ebitda margin 28%margin 28%
Overall on a yearly basis, we maintain the EBITDA margin of 28%, which we have given already.
Call 28-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF