← Scenarios

BALKRISIND

Balkrishna Industries Limited

Automotive Aftermarket/ NSE

Compiled

Auto-generated from filings and public channels — no analyst dossier.

If management delivers what it guided

arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target

BALKRISIND

FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹2,474 today

BEAR

₹1,929

-22%

9.8% a year · 27.3x exit

BASE

₹2,225

-10%

17% a year · 29.6x exit

BULL

₹2,634

+6%

23.1% a year · 33.3x exit

Where the market has priced it

16x38x today — outside the range36x

the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +17.0%, filed +25.2% across 1 quarter(s)
at 38x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (33x)
this company's own median multiple sits 59% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own

How these numbers are produced

Earnings base	FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹64.3 (screener)
Guided growth	17% a year, said on the call of 14-May-2026 · transcript
Read across as	operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence
Delivery calibration	0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings
Exit multiple	27.32x / 29.57x / 33.28x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years
Filed-industry peers	median 18.58x across 4 peers — the cross-check, not the input
Arithmetic	base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)¹ × exit multiple

Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.

How to read this

It answers one question. If this management delivers the growth it told its own investors it would, and the market pays what it has historically paid for this company's earnings, where does the arithmetic land? Nothing here is a forecast of the share price.
Three cases, two moving parts. Bear, base and bull vary the delivery — what fraction of guidance managements actually file — and the exit multiple together, because a company that misses its guidance is usually de-rated for missing it. Each case shows the growth rate and the multiple that produced it.
Read the width, not just the middle. A wide gap between bear and bull means the inputs are uncertain, not that the upside is bigger. A narrow range is a more confident statement than a high one.
“Where the market has priced it” puts today's P/E on the company's own historical range. Sitting far below that range is why a scenario can look enormous: the number is then mostly about re-rating, not about delivery, and the board marks those separately.
The bullets underneath are the caveats — a borrowed peer multiple, a thin filed history, an earnings base that carried a one-off. They are the reasons to trust the number less, listed rather than buried.

Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do. The field guide covers the method.

What management said

from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted

generic growth 17%

As we have mentioned in the PPT, like the five-year CAGR is 17%.

Call 14-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF

Pace against its own guidance

FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged

guided 17.0% filed 25.2% 1 of 4 quarters

Coverage

SectorAutomotive Aftermarket

Dossiersnone

Guidanceyes

Scenarioyes

Street chatter

unverified · logged from public channels

Good Q1- Karnataka Bank, Gokul Agro, Redington, Star Health, Triveni Engineering, Balkrishna Industries, TBO Tek, Timex Group, ACME Solar, Laxmi Organics, Quess Corp, Onemi Tech, Piramal Pharma

Mention only30 Jul 03:03

📝 DS Group brings British chain Ben’s Cookies to India, targets Gen Z and millennials

📝 Balkrishna hedges its bets as global headwinds hurt

📝 SBI says AI-driven banking still needs people, skills and leadership

📝 Byju Raveendran directed to appear in Singapore court on 15 June over contempt

📝 Himalaya Wealth eyes SME manufacturing boom

Guidance29 May 02:10

AWFIS Space Solutions, Emami, Axis Bank, Emcure Pharmaceuticals, Aye Finance, Emmvee Photovoltaic Power, Balkrishna Industries, Epack Prefab Technologies, Bandhan Bank, Equitas Small Finance Bank, Bank of India, Euro Pratik Sales, Belrise Industries, Fedbank Financial Services, BlackBuck, Flair Writing Industries, BLS International Serv

Mention only01 Jun 12:03

CITI on Balkrishna Ind

Sell, TP Rs 2150

1Q significantly above estimates as volume growth surprised positively.

Despite weaker gross margin, higher operating leverage and fx tailwinds boosted profits.

Mgmt. outlook is positive on India across OHT as well as the new 2W/truck & bus tyres.

EU demand would be monitored given adverse weath

Rating / broker31 Jul 03:02