BAJFINANCE
Bajaj Finance Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
BAJFINANCE
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,141 today
BEAR
₹912
-20%
9% a year · 27.4x exit
BASE
₹1,115
-2%
15.6% a year · 31.6x exit
BULL
₹1,673
+47%
21.1% a year · 45.2x exit
Where the market has priced it
25x37x today72x
- this company's own median multiple sits 124% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹30.56 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 15.6% a year, said on the call of 04-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | lender: ROE x retention (Gordon sustainable g) — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 27.38x / 31.58x / 45.19x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 14.12x across 36 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 10%book growth 24%roe 20%
We expect that it should come back to double-digit growth or the company growth momentum between Q2 and Q3 of FY'27.
Call 04-May-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF