If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
AXISCADES
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,554 today
BEAR
₹642
-59%
30.1% a year · 29.2x exit
BASE
₹1,603
+3%
52% a year · 62.3x exit
BULL
₹2,598
+67%
70.7% a year · 90x exit
Where the market has priced it
4x92x today94x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- 4 of 10 filed years were loss-making or near zero — this band describes a recovery, not a settled rating
- the last 3 years priced this company 28% above its ten-year median (80x vs 62x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- at 92x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (90x)
- this company's own median multiple sits 112% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹16.92 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 52% a year, said on the call of 18-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 29.19x / 62.32x / 90x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 6 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 29.36x across 19 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction
implied earnings growth 52%
FY27 guidance in Jun 2026: 1,377 crores revenue (52% growth on retained business base), 927 crores orders under execution (including 142 crores deferred from Q4 FY26), 285 crores design win visibility, 165 crores acquisition-linked visibility, EBITDA margins improving to 20%+
Call 18-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF