AVG
AVG Logistics Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
AVG
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹204 today
BEAR
₹146
-28%
5.8% a year · 10x exit
BASE
₹294
+44%
10% a year · 19.3x exit
BULL
₹464
+127%
13.6% a year · 29.4x exit
Where the market has priced it
7x15x today30x
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹13.88 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 10% a year, said on the call of 02-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: revenue growth, margin held flat — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 10x / 19.28x / 29.42x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 6 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 20.77x across 6 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
revenue growth 10%generic growth 10%
Based on our current order book, customer pipeline, and expansion into new business segment, we expect to deliver healthy double-digit revenue growth in FY27.
Call 02-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF