Asian Paints Limited

Industrial Specialties/ NSE

Compiled

Auto-generated from filings and public channels — no analyst dossier.

If management delivers what it guided

arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target

ASIANPAINT

FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹2,747 today

BEAR

₹2,374

-14%

5.2% a year · 50x exit

BASE

₹2,869

+4%

9% a year · 58.4x exit

BULL

₹3,416

+24%

12.2% a year · 67.5x exit

Where the market has priced it

49x61x today99x

the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
this company's own median multiple sits 69% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own

How these numbers are produced

Earnings base	FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹45.09 (screener)
Guided growth	9% a year, said on the call of 16-Jul-2026 · transcript
Read across as	operating: volume growth, realisation+margin held flat — low confidence
Delivery calibration	0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings
Exit multiple	50x / 58.37x / 67.5x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years
Filed-industry peers	median 34.62x across 20 peers — the cross-check, not the input
Arithmetic	base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)¹ × exit multiple

Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.

How to read this

It answers one question. If this management delivers the growth it told its own investors it would, and the market pays what it has historically paid for this company's earnings, where does the arithmetic land? Nothing here is a forecast of the share price.
Three cases, two moving parts. Bear, base and bull vary the delivery — what fraction of guidance managements actually file — and the exit multiple together, because a company that misses its guidance is usually de-rated for missing it. Each case shows the growth rate and the multiple that produced it.
Read the width, not just the middle. A wide gap between bear and bull means the inputs are uncertain, not that the upside is bigger. A narrow range is a more confident statement than a high one.
“Where the market has priced it” puts today's P/E on the company's own historical range. Sitting far below that range is why a scenario can look enormous: the number is then mostly about re-rating, not about delivery, and the board marks those separately.
The bullets underneath are the caveats — a borrowed peer multiple, a thin filed history, an earnings base that carried a one-off. They are the reasons to trust the number less, listed rather than buried.

Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do. The field guide covers the method.

What management said

from a third-party research digest · not our own extraction

implied earnings growth 9%

Reaffirmed margin guidance of 18-20% and high single-digit volume growth (8-10%) for FY27, citing calibrated price increases, cost excellence, and backward integration to sustain margins amid macroeconomic volatility.

Call 16-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF

Coverage

SectorIndustrial Specialties

Dossiersnone

Guidanceyes

Scenarioyes

Street chatter

unverified · logged from public channels

ASIAN PAINTS: Q4 sales up 10.8% YoY with margin expansion driven by volume growth and cost efficiency.

Capacity / capex29 May 13:29

ASIAN PAINTS: Announces second round of 3–5% price hike effective May 5, 2026.

20 Apr 13:29

*Macquarie On Asian Paints*

Recommendation Buy, Target ₹3000

4Q Ebida beat led by better-than-expected sales growth

Management expects 11%+ price hikes to flow through to realisation

Intends to use cost control to maintain the FY27 standalone Ebida margin at 18-20%

Drag from mix change will likely be at 3-4%

Guidance01 Jun 04:46

Asian Paints: BUY | TP 3,827 | Strong outperformance on margin

Rating / broker31 Jul 12:04