← Scenarios

APLAPOLLO

APL Apollo Tubes Limited

Steel/ NSE

Compiled

Auto-generated from filings and public channels — no analyst dossier.

If management delivers what it guided

arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target

APLAPOLLO

FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹1,820 today

BEAR

₹1,795

-1%-1% a yr

15.8% a year · 30.9x exit

BASE

₹3,200

+76%+40% a yr

27.3% a year · 45.5x exit

BULL

₹4,578

+152%+74% a yr

37.2% a year · 56.2x exit

Where the market has priced it

13x42x today57x

FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +30.0%, filed +11.0% across 1 quarter(s)
this company's own median multiple sits 145% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own

How these numbers are produced

Earnings base	FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹43.33 (screener)
Guided growth	27.3% a year, said on the call of 06-May-2026 · transcript
Read across as	operating: PAT growth guided directly — high confidence
Delivery calibration	0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings
Exit multiple	30.9x / 45.55x / 56.17x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years
Filed-industry peers	median 18.59x across 25 peers — the cross-check, not the input
Arithmetic	base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)² × exit multiple

Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.

How to read this

It answers one question. If this management delivers the growth it told its own investors it would, and the market pays what it has historically paid for this company's earnings, where does the arithmetic land? Nothing here is a forecast of the share price.
Three cases, two moving parts. Bear, base and bull vary the delivery — what fraction of guidance managements actually file — and the exit multiple together, because a company that misses its guidance is usually de-rated for missing it. Each case shows the growth rate and the multiple that produced it.
Read the width, not just the middle. A wide gap between bear and bull means the inputs are uncertain, not that the upside is bigger. A narrow range is a more confident statement than a high one.
“Where the market has priced it” puts today's P/E on the company's own historical range. Sitting far below that range is why a scenario can look enormous: the number is then mostly about re-rating, not about delivery, and the board marks those separately.
The bullets underneath are the caveats — a borrowed peer multiple, a thin filed history, an earnings base that carried a one-off. They are the reasons to trust the number less, listed rather than buried.

Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do. The field guide covers the method.

What management said

from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted

pat growth 30%ebitda growth 25%volume growth 20%generic growth 20%

And finally, Sanjay ji, when you said the year in entirety but targets remain intact, so just to refresh my memory on that, are we saying about 20% volume growth which if I'm not mistaken, we were thinking… Sanjay Gupta: Bharat bhai, I tell

Call 06-May-2026 · bridge confidence high · transcript PDF

Pace against its own guidance

FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged

guided 30.0% filed 11.0% 1 of 4 quarters

Coverage

SectorSteel

Dossiersnone

Guidanceyes

Scenarioyes

Street chatter

unverified · logged from public channels

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC

Adani Energy Solutions

Alivus Life Sciences

Antelopus Selan Energy

APL Apollo Tubes

Adani Total Gas

Bandhan Bank

BlueStone Jewellery and Lifestyle

Borana Weaves

Computer Age Management Services

Cigniti Tech

Coforge

Cyient

DLF

Go Digit General Insurance

Gujarat State Petronet

Home First Finance Co

Ideaforge

Mention only19 Jan 02:15

*BoFA Sec on APL Apollo Tubes*

Initiate buy, TP Rs 2170

APAT is clear leader in India's structural steel tubes market & best way to play the category's long growth runway

Expect organized structural tubes market to grow at 15% CAGR over FY26-30, driven by rising steel penetration (6.5% for India vs 9.5% globally), steady demand from real

Rating / broker06 Jul 05:15

APL APOLLO TUBES: Hits record FY26 sales volume at 34.91 lakh tons (+11% YoY).

Commentary01 Apr 13:29

🏆 APL Apollo Tubes Q1FY27 earnings call on August 3, 2026. #APLAPOLLO - 1 minute ago

AI-curated filing alert · Not investment advice

Results24 Jul 13:07