APEX
Apex Frozen Foods Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
APEX
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹372 today
BEAR
₹242
-35%
17.3% a year · 16.6x exit
BASE
₹422
+14%
30% a year · 26.1x exit
BULL
₹1,354
+264%
40.8% a year · 77.4x exit
Where the market has priced it
9x30x today174x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- the last 3 years priced this company 66% above its ten-year median (43x vs 26x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹12.43 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 30% a year, said on the call of 05-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 16.6x / 26.1x / 77.39x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 9 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 21.55x across 4 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 30%
And we have originally envisaged, of course, growth by almost 30% in volume terms.
Call 05-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF