APCOTEXIND
Apcotex Industries Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
APCOTEXIND
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹611 today
BEAR
₹413
-32%-21% a yr
5.8% a year · 18.9x exit
BASE
₹552
-10%-6% a yr
10% a year · 23.3x exit
BULL
₹818
+34%+19% a yr
13.6% a year · 32.4x exit
Where the market has priced it
18x31x today43x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +10.0%, filed +39.9% across 1 quarter(s)
- the last 3 years priced this company 33% above its ten-year median (31x vs 23x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹19.56 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 10% a year, said on the call of 14-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 18.85x / 23.34x / 32.43x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 22.65x across 40 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 10%
So, we feel fairly confident that we will continue to grow at double digits, given, as I said, we are in a niche space in a few geographies, a few products.
Call 14-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 10.0%
filed 39.9%
1 of 4 quarters