ALICON
Alicon Castalloy Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
ALICON
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹672 today
BEAR
₹454
-32%
4.9% a year · 20.5x exit
BASE
₹526
-22%
8.6% a year · 23x exit
BULL
₹716
+6%
11.6% a year · 30.4x exit
Where the market has priced it
15x32x today46x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- at 32x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (30x)
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹21.08 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 8.6% a year, said on the call of 16-May-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 20.5x / 23x / 30.41x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 9 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 25.12x across 38 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 10%
But even given that, you are still like guiding only towards an 8% to 10% growth.
Call 16-May-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF