AHCL
Anlon Healthcare Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
AHCL
FY26 → FY28 · 2 years of guidance · ~1.7 years from today₹15 today
BEAR
₹17
+18%+10% a yr
17.3% a year · 19.8x exit
BASE
₹31
+115%+59% a yr
30% a year · 29.6x exit
BULL
₹64
+340%+144% a yr
40.8% a year · 51.5x exit
Where the market has priced it
13x23x today538x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 39 Pharmaceuticals: Major peers
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 TTM EPS ₹0.63 (universe (TradingView, diluted TTM)) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 30% a year, said on the call of 09-Jun-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 19.82x / 29.55x / 51.47x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 39 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 29.55x across 39 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)2 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 30%
So, I think last time we spoke, we were targeting around INR360-370 crores this year and in the PPT we've given 30% CAGR.
Call 09-Jun-2026 · bridge confidence low · transcript PDF