AGI
AGI Greenpac Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
AGI
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹709 today
BEAR
₹490
-31%
4.6% a year · 8.6x exit
BASE
₹673
-5%
8% a year · 11.4x exit
BULL
₹1,248
+76%
10.9% a year · 20.7x exit
Where the market has priced it
6x13x today135x
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +8.0%, filed +14.1% across 1 quarter(s)
- the last 3 years priced this company 38% above its ten-year median (16x vs 11x) — the exit multiple here is the ten-year one, so a sustained re-rating would not be captured
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹54.44 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 8% a year, said on the call of 04-Feb-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — medium confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 8.6x / 11.44x / 20.67x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 10 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 10.47x across 6 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
generic growth 8%
Overall, for FY27, we expect to maintain a growth of around 8% to 9%.
Call 04-Feb-2026 · bridge confidence medium · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 8.0%
filed 14.1%
1 of 4 quarters