AAVAS
Aavas Financiers Limited
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
AAVAS
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹1,360 today
BEAR
₹1,676
+23%
9.8% a year · 18.5x exit
BASE
₹2,806
+106%
17% a year · 29x exit
BULL
₹5,373
+295%
23.1% a year · 52.8x exit
Where the market has priced it
14x16x today66x
management named no year; shown one year out
- at 16x its FY26 earnings the stock trades below the bottom of its own ten-year range (18x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
- this company's own median multiple sits 106% above its filed-industry peers; the scenario uses its own
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹82.6 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 17% a year, said on the call of 27-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | lender: ROA x book growth — high confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 18.48x / 29x / 52.84x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 8 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 14.12x across 36 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
credit cost 0.24%roa 3.19%roe 13.34%book growth 17–18%
Credit costs stood at 24 bps, well within our guided ranges.
Call 27-Jul-2026 · bridge confidence high · transcript PDF