AEROFLEX
Aeroflex Industries (AEROFLEX)
Latest view
Constructive
as of 4 Mar 2026 · not a recommendation
Evidence timeline
4 Mar
2026
2026
Aeroflex Industries (AEROFLEX) — Investment Thesis 2026
Constructive/r/thesis/AEROFLEX_2026-03-04.html
4 Mar
2026
2026
AEROFLEX — Thesis
—/r/thesis/AEROFLEX_2026-03-04.pdf
What management said
from NSE earnings-call filings · extracted, not interpreted
guidance downgradedmargin 25.0%generic growth 15.0%
2 years ago, your aim was to get 25% margin in the flexible hose.
Call 30-Jul-2026 · transcript PDF
Pace against its own guidance
FY27
one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged
guided 15.0%
filed 72.6%
1 of 4 quarters
Outlook, as stated
In terms of the hose and assemblies business, the hose assemblies business, at the peak utilization of capacity of 20 million, we would reach and considering if 70% of the sales comes from the assemblies, we're expecting a turnover of between INR650 crores to INR675 crores.
Our skid assemblies segment, which is our newest segment has begun contributing to the top line and is right now accounting for only 5% in FY26, but we expect that this share to scale significantly in the upcoming years.
Asad Daud: So in terms of the miniature metal bellows, once the entire capex is completed and the peak utilization, we are expecting an annual revenue in the range of INR25 crores to INR30 crores.
3.9
concrete references per 100 words spoken — counts, currency, units and
named periods, not adjectives
Chart exhibits
as drawn · not updated since
If management delivers what it guided
arithmetic on filed guidance and past valuations · not a price target
AEROFLEX
FY26 → FY27 · 1 year of guidance · ~0.7 years from today₹435 today
BEAR
₹81
-81%
8.6% a year · 17.7x exit
BASE
₹136
-69%
14.9% a year · 28.2x exit
BULL
₹308
-29%
20.3% a year · 61x exit
Where the market has priced it
7x104x today — outside the range95x
- the guided figure reached earnings through a low-confidence bridge
- this company has too little filed history for a multiple band of its own, so the exit multiple is the median of 31 Industrial Machinery peers
- FY27 one quarter filed — the pace is shown, not judged: guided +15.0%, filed +72.6% across 1 quarter(s)
- at 104x its FY26 earnings the stock already trades above the top of its own ten-year range (61x)
- the range is unusually wide — read it as the span of management's own claim, not as a forecast
How these numbers are produced
| Earnings base | FY26 fiscal year EPS ₹4.2 (screener) |
|---|---|
| Guided growth | 14.9% a year, said on the call of 30-Jul-2026 · transcript |
| Read across as | operating: unlabelled growth figure, read as revenue — low confidence |
| Delivery calibration | 0.58x / 1x / 1.36x of what was guided — measured: 76 annual guided-vs-filed pairs + 77 near-complete quarterly years — NSE transcripts against the companies' own filings |
| Exit multiple | 17.71x / 28.23x / 61x, this company’s own p20 / median / p80 across 31 filed years |
| Filed-industry peers | median 28.23x across 31 peers — the cross-check, not the input |
| Arithmetic | base EPS × (1 + guided growth × delivery)1 × exit multiple |
Arithmetic on management’s own guidance and this company’s own past valuations. Not a price target, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of what the stock will do.
Price chart
260 sessions to 31 Jul 2026 ·
daily close ·
our own broker data

